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Everyone is buzzing about the U.S. presidential election and, concerns of market volatility persist given the August market swoon. What are you telling clients who are back from their summer vacations or prospective clients who told you to call after Labor Day? A recent Caron's Corner, "A Tale of Two Economies: The Best of Times, The Worst of Times," can serve as a resource as your team refines its thesis regarding where markets may be headed from here.
Let's consider going meta for a moment and move up to another level of perspective. It appears CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group Jim Caron's thesis from July 10, "The Soft Landing is Firming," remains intact when you listen to the Caron's Corner from August 26. Yet he cautions, maybe "it's not that simple."
Despite this caution, there is elegance in the simplicity of the thesis. This approach heeds the sage (paraphrased) counsel of the late Charlie Munger: Never articulate your view without being able to articulate the opposing point of view with equal clarity.
As you go meta with this thought, test yourself. Assuming you have a crystalized thesis regarding where markets might be headed from here, how well can you articulate the opposing point of view?
Given the upcoming election there is a second self-test we recommend you reflect upon: Are your political views shaping your investment recommendations? Existing and prospective clients may view unfolding economic data through their political lens, blurring their view on seeing this moment as either "the best of times" or "the worst of times." It's vital for you to remain clear-eyed, never allowing your personal political views to influence your objectivity.
Bottom line: You're expected to have an opinion. Bring clarity to your current thesis. Be equally competent articulating the opposing point of view. Also be wary of allowing your personal politics to cloud your judgment and influence your investment perspectives.
"It's vital for you to remain clear-eyed, never allowing your personal political views to influence your objectivity."/p>
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At the Advisor Institute, our goal is not to shape your opinion or provide investment advice, rather to share this viewpoint as an example of what we believe to be a superb display of thesis articulation.
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