With core inflation in the U.S. reaccelerating in the past six months and nearly approaching the Fed’s target of 2%, questions about the implications of this trend have become topical. If long-dormant inflation makes a lasting comeback, this would indeed represent a major regime shift in markets. Here, we explore empirical financial asset behavior in periods of higher inflation and lay out our preferred approach for constructing and managing a multiasset inflation protection portfolio.
While not a foregone conclusion, it seems likely that inflation in the U.S. and globally has seen its low for this cycle. The output gap appears closed in 48% of the global economy, which suggests inflation is set to accelerate cyclically.1 Many of the structural disinflationary influences that have been present over the past three decades appear to have largely played out or even reversed. Furthermore, the possibility of dovish policy errors during the next downturn appear to have increased, as policymakers and academics have begun to debate aggressive policy tools like price-level targeting and government sponsored jobs programs.
Risk Considerations
There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. In general, equity securities’ values also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed countries. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. High yield securities (“junk bonds”) are lower rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities (MBS and ABS) are sensitive to early prepayment risk and a higher risk of default and may be hard to value and difficult to sell (liquidity risk). They are also subject to credit, market and interest rate risks. Certain U.S. government securities purchased by the Portfolio, such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. It is possible that these issuers will not have the funds to meet their payment obligations in the future. Real estate investment trusts are subject to risks similar to those associated with the direct ownership of real estate and they are sensitive to such factors as management skills and changes in tax laws. Derivative instruments can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on the Portfolio’s performance. Illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk). By investing in investment company securities, the portfolio is subject to the underlying risks of that investment company's portfolio securities. In addition to the Portfolio's fees and expenses, the Portfolio generally would bear its share of the investment company's fees and expenses. Subsidiary and tax risk the Portfolio may seek to gain exposure to the commodity markets through investments in the Subsidiary or commodity index-linked structured notes. The Subsidiary is not registered under the 1940 Act and is not subject to all the investor protections of the 1940 Act. Historically, the Internal Revenue Service ("IRS") has issued private letter rulings in which the IRS specifically concluded that income and gains from investments in commodity index-linked structured notes or a wholly-owned foreign subsidiary that invests in commodity-linked instruments are "qualifying income" for purposes of compliance with Subchapter M of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the "Code"). The Portfolio has not received such a private letter ruling, and is not able to rely on private letter rulings issued to other taxpayers. If the Portfolio failed to qualify as a regulated investment company, it would be subject to federal and state income tax on all of its taxable income at regular corporate tax rates with no deduction for any distributions paid to shareholders, which would significantly adversely affect the returns to, and could cause substantial losses for, Portfolio shareholders. Cryptocurrency (notably, Bitcoin) operates as a decentralized, peer-to-peer financial exchange and value storage that is used like money. It is not backed by any government. Federal, state or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency may experience very high volatility. LIBOR Discontinuance or Unavailability Risk. The regulatory authority that oversees financial services firms and financial markets in the U.K. has announced that, after the end of 2021, it would no longer persuade or compel contributing banks to make rate submissions for purposes of determining the LIBOR rate. As a result, it is possible that commencing in 2022, LIBOR may no longer be available or no longer deemed an appropriate reference rate upon which to determine the interest rate on or impacting certain derivatives and other instruments or investments comprising some of the Fund’s portfolio. Portfolio Turnover. Consistent with its investment policies, the Fund will purchase and sell securities without regard to the effect on portfolio turnover. Higher portfolio turnover will cause the Fund to incur additional transaction costs.
There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.
IMPORTANT IMFORMATION
The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively the "Firm"), and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.
This material is for the benefit of persons whom the Firm reasonably believes it is permitted to communicate to and should not be forwarded to any other person without the consent of the Firm. It is not addressed to any other person and may not be used by them for any purpose whatsoever. It is the responsibility of every person reading this material to fully observe the laws of any relevant country, including obtaining any governmental or other consent which may be required or observing any other formality which needs to be observed in that country.
This material is a general communication, which is not impartial, is for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation to purchase or sell specific securities, or to adopt any particular investment strategy. Information does not address financial objectives, situation or specific needs of individual investors.
Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.
For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the link above.
Prior to making any investment decision, investors should carefully review the strategy's / product’s relevant offering document. For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the link above.
FINRA BrokerCheck. Investors may check the background of their Investment Professional by contacting the Financial IndustryRegulatory Authority (FINRA). FINRA BrokerCheck is a free tool to help investors check the professional background of current andformer FINRA-registered securities firms and brokers. FINRA BrokerCheck is available by calling 1-800-289-9999 and at www.FINRA.org. The FINRA BrokerCheck brochure describing this program is available to investors at www.FINRA.org.
To report a website vulnerability, please go to Responsible Disclosure.
Eaton Vance, Atlanta Capital, Parametric and Calvert are part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.
MSIM, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and its affiliates have arrangements in place to market each other’s products and services. Each MSIM affiliate is regulated as appropriate in the jurisdiction it operates. MSIM’s affiliates are: Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited, Eaton Vance Advisers International Ltd, Calvert Research and Management, Eaton Vance Management, Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC, and Atlanta Capital Management LLC.
For USA PATRIOT Act Disclosure Notice please click here.
This image indicates content designed specifically for Financial Advisors / Investment Professionals. This material is not to be used with the public.
Before investing in any Eaton Vance, Calvert or Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc.-advised fund, prospective investors should consider carefully the investment objective(s), risks, and charges and expenses. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money. For open-end mutual funds, the current prospectus contains this and other information. To obtain an open-end mutual fund prospectus or summary prospectus and the most recent annual and semiannual shareholder reports, contact your financial advisor or download a copy here. For closed-end funds, you should contact your financial advisor. To obtain the most recent annual and semi-annual shareholder report for a closed-end fund contact your financial advisor or download a copy here. To obtain an exchange-traded fund, ("ETF") prospectus or summary prospectus, contact your financial advisor or download a copy here.
Before purchasing any variable product, consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with the underlying investment option(s) and those of the product itself. For a prospectus containing this and other information, contact your investment or insurance professional. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management does not provide tax or legal advice. Prospective investors should consult with a tax or legal advisor before making any investment decision. The information on this Web page is for U.S. residents only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, securities in any jurisdiction to any person to whom it is not lawful to make such an offer.
© Eaton Vance Management. All rights reserved.
Morgan Stanley Distribution, Inc. serves as the distributor for Morgan Stanley Funds. Morgan Stanley Distribution, Inc. Member FINRA / SIPC. Eaton Vance open-end mutual funds are offered through Eaton Vance Distributors, Inc. One Post Office Square, Boston, MA 02109. Member FINRA/SIPC. Exchange-traded funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A DEPOSIT